Jeb Bush Projections On Social Security Off By 30 Years

This statement is off by roughly 30 years.  Can we expect candidates to know the finances of the government's largest expense?

“We need to look over the horizon and begin to phase in, over an extended period of time, going from 65 to 68 or 70,” he added. “And that, by itself, will help sustain the retirement system for anybody under the age of 40.”

Jeb Bush’s statements from CBS’s “Face the Nation” about Social Security expose a distance from the issue that is unhealthy for Americans who depend upon the system. In his interview, he states the wrong retirement age, and delivers promises which are off by decades.

A number of his critics have already pointed out that Bush misstated the normal retirement age (“NRA”).  The NRA of Social Security is 66, not 65.  It hasn’t been 65 in more than a decade. Yes, some enjoy poking a wealthy politician unacquainted with his own retirement age about the suggestion to increase the NRA of others.

For me, it is a forgivable slip given that Bush was speaking on a Sunday morning news program, rather than in a more formal setting.  He has spoken in the past of increasing the retirement age.  In this interview, he was only providing additional clarity to a past position. 

Originally published on TheHill.Com, (see the article)

This chart shows the life prospects of a retiree.  The change to gradually increase the retirement age that started in 2000, basically accounts for all of the increase in a retiree's life expectancy until 2050.

Life Expectations At Retirement By Year For Social Security
Year	Survivor	Male	Females
2000 (Life Expectancy At 65)	87%	20.42	22.97
2050 (Life Expectancy At 67)	89%	21.06	23.41
Source: Social Security Administration Actuarial Study 120 (A survivor is the likelihood of a 21 year-old reaching retirement)