Wednesday, October 24, 2018

While Social Security program is a lifeline for millions, the questions about its stability is nearly invisible in the 2018 mid-term elections. Even a subset of the issues should draw-out well thought answers, and yet it does not even draw questions.
  • The SSA expects about half of those turning 71 today to be turning 87 when the program would deliver substantial reductions ~ we don’t even know how those cuts would be distributed to the individual.
  • For every $1 collected since inception, the program has created $2 of promises that no one expects it to keep. That isn’t a problem with demographics. That is a political program run amok.
  • The unfunded liabilities - the generally accepted measure of the program’s brokenness - is growing twice as fast as the GDP. In other words, the hole is growing twice as fast as our ability to fill it.
Even in battleground states, where millions of dollars are chasing voters at the margin, candidates can’t find 20 cents to explain their thoughts on the program’s long-term finances. AARP, a leading seniors advocate, in the state of Florida, a state heavily dependent upon those monthly checks, cannot find a position from either candidate for Senate. The story is the same in NV, AZ, and MO which supposedly might determine control of the Senate.

The GOP almost across the board believes that they are unwilling to change the program for those in or approaching retirement. They are oblivious to the fact that the existing system can’t even provide certainty to those well in retirement. The person who turns 71 today expects to outlive full benefits. If you are going to keep the GOP’s promise, someone has to be willing to talk about the taxes that will be increased.

The Democrats generally believe that we can fix the program by throwing money at the problem. How has that strategy worked over 80 years? Well, every $1 in has generated $2 of failure.

Back to the idea that millions of people depend upon the system today. That dependence will rise as people age. So we are heading to a point the system is apt to break at the peak point of dependence. Instead of a serious discussion, we get a narrative from Washington that might as well start with “Once Upon A Time”.

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